BUNDOORA, VIC. (NFNL HQ). — There are crucial games in terms of both the final five and the double chance in Round 11 of Northern Football Netball League’s Division 3 football.
Old Eltham Collegians and Epping face off at Eltham College, with both teams two games outside the top five; each team will see this as an absolute must-win encounter.
This presents as a 50/50 type game for tipsters, and a closer inspection confirms that thought. Both teams have three victories from nine appearances, with their strength of schedule to date being identical. The Blues and Turtles have played every other team once, with this match being their first clash against each other for the season.
Epping gets the tick for a superior percentage with 78% compared to Old Eltham Collegians’ 61%. Offsetting that is the home ground advantage for the Turtles. The Blues and Turtles will be aware that the loser will need a huge turnaround in form and some luck to get back in the hunt for the finals. The victor will see themselves as keeping their slim finals chances alive, it makes for a cracking contest.
Ivanhoe comes off the bye to tackle Kinglake at Ivanhoe Park. Given the ladder positions, the Hoers will be the hottest of favourites in this match-up. It’ll be a good tune-up for upcoming back-to-back away games against Heidelberg West and Mernda. If they can continue their unbeaten run through all three of these games, then top spot looks to be safe.
The Lakers will be looking to claim a scalp or two in the run home, but this appears to be their most difficult assignment of all. They also face the difficulty of being on the road week after week from now until the end of the season. While a win would be a huge upset, they can look to put in a good performance and then hit the next game against Old Eltham Collegians with a degree of confidence.
Lalor hosts Reservoir at Lalor Reserve in what is a replay of the very first match of the season. These two opened the season on Good Friday when the Mustangs recorded a dominant 102-point win.
Life has been tough ever since then for Bloods fans. Injuries and a lack of quality players have seen them fixed at the foot of the table ever since. It’s hard to make a case for them in this contest, but they’ll go out playing with a lot of determination.
The Mustangs will see this as a must-win game and also a chance to build their percentage. While it appears that they have a decent percentage gap on the teams just behind them on the ladder, it might be necessary to get a big win on the weekend as they play a trio of top four teams immediately after their Round 13 bye.
Heidelberg West continues its streak of consecutive home games when they take on Watsonia at Heidelberg Park. The Hawks remain a chance for finals action, but have a difficult patch now with a game against Ivanhoe following this contest. It gets easier after that for them, but an upset win in this contest would provide a huge boost for their chances.
This is also a key game for the Saints. If other matches go according to ladder positions, then they would draw level with Mernda on the table. Given the percentage gap, the combined winning margins of Laurimar over Mernda and Watsonia against Heidelberg West would need to be in the order of 90 to bridge the percentage gap. The Saints would be favoured based on recent form, but the Hawks will have gained confidence after big wins against lower-placed teams in the past fortnight.
Match of the round status belongs to the clash between Laurimar and Mernda at Laurimar Reserve in a battle of second versus third. Supporters of these outfits had vastly different outcomes last Saturday.
The Power came off the bye and rebounded from the disappointment of a loss to Ivanhoe with a huge 101-point victory over Epping. Being back to their very best will provide the team with confidence for this contest.
The Demons had won six in a row but came back down to earth with a 32-point loss to Reservoir at home. Had they won that match, they would be playing for second spot. As it is, they can draw level on wins with Laurimar with a victory but are too far back in terms of percentage to replace them on the table. A major focus for them would be to win and strengthen their grip on third spot and the double chance.
Given the form of last Saturday, the Power is likely to go in tipped by most pundits. The extra help of home ground advantage will have their fans turning up expecting a win.
The battle in the midfield will be essential to Laurimar to claim the win. Jesse Donaldson returned last weekend after missing the Ivanhoe match and excelled. He and Captain Luke Wilson make for a strong duo in the centre square.
Mernda fans will hope that ruck Billy Morrison can give playing coach Brent Marshall and the other mids first use of the ball.
The Demons will enter the tussle keen to atone for the disappointment of last week’s loss in what looks likely to be a tight contest.
