BUNDOORA, VIC. (NFNL HQ). — With just two rounds of the regular season to go, the fight for spots in the five is hot as teams prepare for Round 17 of the Northern Football Netball League’s Division 3.
Three teams in Epping, Kinglake and Old Eltham Collegians have a bye, but all three teams are out of finals contention.
Ivanhoe, Laurimar and Mernda now look safe in the top three places on the table. Reservoir, Watsonia, Heidelberg West and Kilmore will fight it out for the final two spots.
Reservoir has eight wins and a percentage of 113.5. Their run home is Heidelberg West at home and then Old Eltham Collegians away. One win will see them play finals. They can lose both games and still be in the five.
Watsonia (5th) has seven wins and a percentage of 108.8. Their run home is Kilmore at home and Kinglake at home. Two wins will see them play finals; one win may be enough; they also have a tiny chance to lose both and sneak in.
Heidelberg West (6th) has seven wins and a percentage of 90.71. Their run home is Reservoir away and Lalor at home. Two wins may get them in, but it is not guaranteed. One win could get them in if absolutely everything else went their way.
Kilmore (7th) has 7 wins and a percentage of 85.15. Their run home is Watsonia away and Mernda at home. They will need to win both remaining games and will need other results to go their way to get in.
One match crucial to the fight for the five sees Reservoir host Heidelberg West at Crispe Park. A quick look at the ladder would suggest that the Mustangs would be hard to beat on their home deck. A win in this one would see them make finals for the first time since their premiership year back in 2015. With stars of the quality of Josh Grabowski and Aaron Edwards, as well as ex-AFL players Trent Cotchin, Bachar Houli and Michael Hurley fronting up, most pundits will be tipping them.
However, there are reasons to give the Hawks a chance. They won five out of six prior to their loss to Kilmore prior to the bye. They will be fresh for this contest and boosted by the fact that Watsonia was overrun late in last week’s game against Mernda. With a chance to play finals for the first time, the players will be giving it their all.
Lalor takes on Mernda at Lalor Reserve. The Demons have clinched a finals spot and an expected win in this one will officially sew up the double chance. After losing three in a row a few weeks ago, Mernda have now won their last three and would be looking to take a winning streak into the finals series.
It’s hard to make a case for the Bloods, but they would like to do well in their last home game for the season.
Another huge match as far as the five goes occurs when Watsonia and Kilmore clash at Binnak Park. The equation is simple for the Blues: win or bow out of the finals race. They were given almost no hope a few weeks ago but have won three of the last four and lost to Ivanhoe in that period. So that form line gives them a chance, even though they are on the road.
Kilmore seems to have improved significantly since losing at home to the Saints back in Round 8 by 30 points.
Watsonia would seem the logical tip on their home deck and their form for 90% of the contest last week would suggest a win. But it will be up to the team to bounce back from the disappointment of a loss when the game appeared to be in the bag.
Both teams have exciting and talented young players who like to take the game on. The likely battle between Saint’s forward Cameron Cloke and Grant Paxton will be a highlight and a big crowd is likely to attend.
A game which many see as a grand final preview has Ivanhoe pitted against Laurimar at Ivanhoe Park in the NFNL Match of the Day.
If the Power prevail, they will go one win ahead of the Hoers and be the first team to 15 wins. But Round 18 sees Laurimar have a bye and Ivanhoe would be able to regain top spot with a win. The percentage gap means that the Power could only claim top spot in the unlikely event of the Hoers losing both remaining games.
Given the end-of-season ladder likelihoods, the main motivation for the winner of this contest is the psychological edge heading into the finals. Ivanhoe prevailed in their previous match this year by 35-points at Laurimar Reserve in Round 8 and at home this time would be considered strong favourites by most tipsters.
Since that time, Laurimar seems to have improved and the results are similar. A look at the teams in the hunt for the finals that they have both played since their mid-season byes illustrates this point.
Ivanhoe defeated Mernda by 73 points; Laurimar defeated Mernda by 91 points.
Ivanhoe defeated Reservoir by 68 points; Laurimar defeated Reservoir by 60 points.
That recent form suggests a closer tussle may occur this time around. It would be a mighty feat for the Hoers to go through the season undefeated. This match will almost definitely decide whether they can match the efforts of the only other team to do so in the Fitzroy Stars in 2025.
If the Power can cause the upset away from home, they will enter the finals series full of confidence. Team selections will be of great interest to see if each team regains their key players. A head-to-head battle between the coaches’ MVP top two, Riley Loton and Jesse Donaldson, would be a delight to watch in a game which is sure to draw a big crowd.
